The US midterms are a warning to Donald Trump, but Britain should not expect his policies to change
The remarkable results in the United States midterm elections are a comprehensive rejection of President Donald Trump’s policies since winning his second term in 2024.
The Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats was expected, but losing control of the Senate by such a margin was not widely predicted.
I was in the US recently, and for the first time in a decade, it was hard to find enthusiastic “Make America Great Again” fans.
We should not, however, get too carried away with the consequences of the results.
They were, above all else, about the effect of Mr Trump’s policies on the average American voter; in particular the rising price of diesel and petrol, leading to steep hikes in the cost of living across the board for everyone.
Even after these results, the President will still lead on US foreign and international policy.
The fact his political opponents will control both houses in Congress will certainly limit his room for manoeuvre, especially when it comes to money.
But Mr Trump will still be able to carry out his “America First” programme.
That will continue to have clear consequences not only for America but also for the rest of the world, including Britain.
Despite the widespread celebrations of the results, we should not believe in the idea that US international policies are going to change overnight.
The US will continue to attack Iran.
Mr Trump will rightly continue to insist that European nations should pay more for Nato.
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His preference for Russia over Ukraine will carry on.
The President will not go away.
The one thing we have all learnt about Mr Trump is he is consistently unpredictable.
He still has the power to surprise us all. He could still lash out at those countries he thinks have failed to sufficiently support him.
Could he double down on tariffs and oil policies, leading to still higher energy and other prices in Britain, with negative consequences right across our economy?
There can be no doubt that in his last two years as president, Mr Trump will want a personal legacy for the history books.
He will still want the Nobel Peace Prize.
Mr Trump will want to make good on his promises to end wars around the world.
He will go on claiming the US is thriving economically under his leadership.
And when the facts get in the way of those extravagant claims, he will still blame everyone else for his own policy failures.
To that extent the midterm election results are not all bad for Mr Trump.
He will now be able to blame Congress and Democratic politicians when things go really wrong.
What will inevitably happen, however, over the last two years of the Trump presidency is his personal policies will gradually begin to fade in significance.
His importance in the US and across the world will gradually be eclipsed as the country prepares for a big political change.
The long-term consequence of the US midterm election results is it seems increasingly likely the next president of the US elected in 2028 will be a Democrat.
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