Iran war likely to create 'surge of illegal migrant crossings' into Britain, National Crime Agency warns

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Mar 18, 2026 - 09:32

Iran war likely to create 'surge of illegal migrant crossings' into Britain, National Crime Agency warns

The Iran war is likely to increase the number of illegal migrants crossing the Channel, the head of the National Crime Agency (NCA) has warned.

Graeme Biggar, NCA director general, confessed the US-Israeli war against Iran could make organised immigration crime worse on UK borders.

He said: “Migrant demand to reach the UK unlawfully continues to be high, and the conflict in Iran is likely to increase the challenge.”

The NCA chief admitted that migration crises generally follow conflict, with people being displaced from their homes and fleeing to safety.

He continued by saying he was not “expecting” an “absolutely massive increase from Iran”, but “some of it will be in small boats”.

In his speech launching the National Strategic Assessment 2026, Mr Biggar said the majority of arrivals were nationals from the Horn of Africa, who have outnumbered Albanians and Vietnamese as the highest number of migrants coming to the UK.

He continued saying tackling people-smuggling networks remains the NCA’s top operational priority, making up around a quarter of its work.

However, he acknowledged the challenge of disrupting criminal activity largely based overseas, particularly where such actions are not illegal in those countries, but said the agency was seeing growing success.

A displaced Lebanese woman on the seafront of Beirut after Israel issued evacuation orders across Lebanon

In 2025, officers and European partners seized more than 500 boats and engines, preventing tens of thousands of potential Channel crossings, while key smugglers were arrested and jailed.

He added that the NCA is targeting every aspect of the trade - from equipment and finances to communications, while maintaining a “relentless focus” on the threat despite continued high demand.

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