Keir Starmer's fate as PM hangs in balance as Makerfield count underway in battle between Andy Burnham and Reform
Sir Keir Starmer's fate as Prime Minister is hanging in the balance as the Makerfield count begins in a "David versus Goliath" battle between Andy Burnham and Reform UK.
Polls across the Greater Manchester constituency closed at 10pm tonight and counting will soon be underway.
The heated crunch contest, dubbed a "two-horse race", could be make-or-break for Labour, with the Mayor of Greater Manchester eyeing up the chance to boot out Sir Keir from No10 upon his return to Westminster.
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting has also declared that if Mr Burnham stands in an upcoming race, he will too.
The beleaguered Prime Minister has insisted he will not walk away, even in the face of a looming leadership contest.
But Reform UK's candidate, "plucky plumber" Robert Kenyon, is hoping to put a stop Mr Burnham's rise to power.
The candidate has regularly accused the Greater Manchester Mayor of merely using the parliamentary position as a "stepping stone" back to SW1, which the "King in the North" has refuted.
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Turnout in Makerfield higher than General Election
We've just heard the turnout figures in Makerfield.
Some 58.75 per cent of the electorate has turned up to vote in this by-election that's up from 52.4 per cent at the 2024 General Election.
Lisa Nandy showers Andy Burnham with praise as counting continues in Makerfield
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy has said that the fact Andy Burnham is even in contention to win is a testament to his strength as a candidate after Reform UK won Wigan Council at the May 7 elections.
Speaking to GB News, Ms Nandy said a victory for the Greater Manchester Mayor would be an "historic win".
"It would give Andy Burnham a very loud voice at the top of national politics. He has proved he can run a hopeful campaign," she said.
Asked whether she would like Sir Keir Starmer to set out a timetable for his exit if Mr Burnham returns to the House of Commons, she told the BBC: “Obviously I’d expect the Prime Minister to pick up the phone to a winning by-election candidate to congratulate him and I’m sure he will do that, and I’m sure there’ll be a conversation between them.
“But it’s far too early to talk about these things.”
Jess Phillips: 'Keir Starmer should be given a dignified exit'
Ex-Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips has called for Sir Keir Starmer to be given a "dignified exit" should Andy Burnham win Makerfield.
Ms Phillips has just outlined her ideal outcome to the BBC - Mr Burnham wins, Sir Keir is given the chance to make a "dignified" departure.
But she added that she did not want to see "chaos" with lots of ministers resigning alongside the Prime Minister.
She resigned as a minister last month.
Makerfield result 'expected at 3am'
Council officials in Makerfield have told The Guardian they expect the result by around 3am.
In Aberdeen South... SNP 'pessimistic' over fortunes in 'referendum on North Sea oil'
It's understood that senior SNP figures are pessimistic about the party's fortunes in Aberdeen South.
Sources have said early sampling of postal votes shows a heavy tactical vote skewed towards the Scottish Tory candidate Douglas Lumsden.
Tory sources have suggested the party is “cautiously optimistic”, but emphasised it was still early in the counting process.
The by-election, billed as a referendum on North Sea oil, is also expected to have a particularly low turnout.
Reform counsel caution as by-election count 'way too close to call'
A Reform source at the Makerfield count has warned the crunch vote is still "way too close to call".
Counting is underway in Wigan - but it was "way too early" to make any kind of prediction, the source said.
He added that canvassing had been "really positive" - but said the party would have a better idea of how it had done after the verification process was complete.
Revealed: Keir Starmer held Downing Street meeting to rally 'core supporters' ahead of potential leadership war
Sir Keir Starmer held a major Downing Street meeting last night in a pre-by-election bid to gee up his core supporters.
Around 30 MPs were at the meeting - at which David Lammy and Bridget Philipson spoke, according to Sky News.
The Prime Minister was said to have been "remarkably upbeat" - despite the looming prospect of losing his job.
He is thought to have admitted Labour's local election results were a disaster - and even that he had made mistakes - but claimed the overall trajectory of of Britain under his watch was positive.
One source told the broadcaster that MPs were impressed by Sir Keir's "energy and resilience", and backed his arguments for staying on.
But in a dire warning of things to come, even his backers doubted he could win over the Labour membership if there is leadership contest.
Andy Burnham believed to have support of 81 MPs and will seek to challenge Keir Starmer
Andy Burnham is said to have a list of 81 MPs who will support the Mayor of Greater Manchester in a leadership contest to oust Sir Keir Starmer from No10.
The Makerfield hopeful will urge the Prime Minister to step aside without a race, several sources told The New Statesman.
However, it is understood that Mr Burnham does not have any plan to launch a leadership contest within the next few days.
Reform MP accuses Restore Britain of 'utter betrayal of Britain' if it splits right-wing vote
Reform MP Sarah Pochin has accused Restore Britain of committing an "utter betrayal of Britain" if it splits the right-wing vote in the make-or-break by-election.
Fears over the divided vote have spiralled since the polls began to indicate that Rupert Lowe's backers were allowing Mr Burnham's to storm ahead in support.
Reform UK gearing up for 'highest ever by-election percentage' in fight against Andy Burnham
Reform UK is gearing up for its "highest ever by-electio percentage" in its fight against Andy Burnham, an insider shared.
In the contest dubbed a "two-horse race" between Reform's Robert Kenyon and the Manchester mayor, a Reform source said that they feel "very good".
"Our vote has turned out today and we will get our highest-ever by-election percentage," they added.
Reform MP Sarah Pochin, who won her seat last with a majority of six votes, took home 38.7 per cent of the share.
Andy Burnham issues statement as polls close in crunch contest
Andy Burnham has issued a statement after polls closed at 10pm in the Wigan constituency.
Mr Burnham said: "A huge thanks to the people of the Makerfield constituency for your patience and good humour over the last five weeks.
"My thanks too to the many volunteers who came up to support my campaign. We ran a very positive one and can be proud of it!"
Reform UK accuses Restore Britain of 'dirty tricks' as 'Muslims for Reform' van ignites furore
Reform UK has accused Restore Britain of "dirty tricks" after a "Muslims for Reform" van ignited furore on the final day of the heated campaign.
In a now-deleted post, Restore leader Rupert Lowe shared photos online of the controversial vehicle, writing online: "Seen in Makerfield this morning. We do not want this divisive identity politics in our politics."
But Reform UK chastised their right-wing rivals and subsequently reported the van to Greater Manchester Police.
Labour set to emerge victorious from Makerfield contest as Restore Britain splits right-wing vote
Labour is set to emerge victorious from the Makerfield contest as Restore Britain is projected to split the right-wing vote.
The latest weighted average for the by-election polling puts Labour on 46.9 per cent, with Reform UK trailing behind in second place on 39.4 per cent.
However, Rupert Lowe's support of seven per cent has divided the vote on the right, paving the way for Mr Burnham to return to Westminster.
'We knew this would be a tough fight': Labour deputy leader thanks Makerfield campaigners ahead of count
Labour's deputy leader Lucy Powell has admitted that Makerfield was a "tough fight" as she heaped praise onto Makerfield's campaigners.
"Our great candidate, Andy Burnham, and our fantastic Labour team have run a positive campaign focused on the people of the Makerfield constituency," she said.
The Manchester Central MP continued: "We knew this would be a tough fight, given Reform did so well here just a few weeks ago, but the Labour movement came together to show we are well up for that fight.
"While it will be some hours before we know the result, I want to say a huge thank you to the hundreds and hundreds of activists and volunteers who have helped with this campaign.
"Together, we've spoken to a record number of residents and shared our Labour message of hope and optimism.
"Labour will continue working every day for the people of this country, putting our values into action and delivering the fairer future communities want to see."
Polls close in three by-elections across country
Polls have closed in three Westminster by-elections across Britain this evening.
Residents across Makerfield, Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South all headed to cast their vote earlier today.
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