Brazil election goes to runoffs as Flavio Bolsonaro exceeds expectations over left-wing President Lula

The Brazilian presidential election will go to a runoff, after Flavio Bolsonaro exceeded expectations against incumbent President Lula.

Senator Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair, took some 47 per cent of valid votes in the first round of voting, beating the forecasts in most private surveys.

The two leading candidates will now face off in the second round of voting on October 25, after narrowing the field from 12 candidates.

Politicians across the spectrum focused their campaigns on rising living costs, corruption, and insecurity in Brazilians' daily lives.

Private surveys in the run-up to the election had forecast Lula leading the first-round vote by around three percentage points.

Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected performance will buoy his campaign and may bolster Brazil's currency and stock market, which have risen on the prospects of the business-friendly challenger.

Robert Muggah, cofounder of think tank Igarape Institute: "The pollsters missed badly. Expect the runoff polls, which show a dead heat, to understate Bolsonaro as well."

A victory for the senator would extend a wave of wins across Latin America for right-wing candidates aligned with President Donald Trump, while Lula's reelection could challenge Washington, which has clashed with the White House over trade and security.

Despite growing worries over Brazil's public finances and sluggish economic growth, the campaign offered meagre policy debate, as both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates.

Early on Sunday, Flavio told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was counting on "a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula."

His father, the former President, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

Flavio has sought to capitalise on cost-of-living concerns, while Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families.

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Despite falling inequality and unemployment across Brazil, President Lula has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt and the threat of crime and more pervasive gang activity.

Rising spending and public debt above 82 per cent of GDP have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil's next president will need to address.

Officials in Brasília lowered their economic growth forecasts for this year and next to two per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

A strong performance by right-wing candidates in Sunday's Senate election could help Bolsonaro pass economic reforms, institute a "more well-behaved fiscal policy," and ultimately boost growth if he is elected, said Marco Saravalle, chief investment officer at MSX Invest/Krivo Capital.

Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Lula's Workers' Party out of office.

"I don't think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes," she said, adding that she wished psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury were a more viable candidate.

Fernando Tempel, 49, a management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Bolsonaro despite initially planning to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.

Political analyst Rafael Favetti said: "The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the runoff...while this should benefit Flavio Bolsonaro now, his growth potential in the second round drops precisely because that support has already been front-loaded."

Scandals and fears of foreign interference ahead of the vote largely overshadowed policy debates during the campaign.

Controversy surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil's political class after Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme.

The investigation has probed the banker's ties to figures ranging from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to the younger Bolsonaro, who the federal police is investigating for money laundering tied to the case.

Both have denied the allegations.

Throughout the campaign, Lula's allies have warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognise election results if he wins, pointing to an aborted effort to send US officials to Brazil.

Speaking to reporters after voting in São Bernardo do Campo, in São Paulo state, Lula said: "What is at stake is the future of Brazil."

President Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Senator Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.